The Chicago White Sox are about to embark on a pitching odyssey that no team has ever taken, a sustained engagement with a six-man starting rotation. Here’s how the rotation will break down over the course of the experiment, outlined by manager Ozzie Guillen as the next stretch of 20 games without pause, beginning at the Oakland A’s on Friday and ending at the Boston Red Sox on June 1.
May 13 at Oakland: Phil Humber (six days’ rest)
May 14 at Oakland: Gavin Floyd (six)
May 15 at Oakland: Mark Buehrle (six)
May 16 vs. Texas: Edwin Jackson (six)
May 17 vs. Texas: John Danks (six)
May 18 vs. Cleveland: Jake Peavy (six)
May 19 vs. Cleveland: Phil Humber (five)
May 20 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Gavin Floyd (five)
May 21 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Mark Buehrle (five)
May 22 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Edwin Jackson (five)
May 23 at Texas: John Danks (five)
May 24 at Texas: Jake Peavy (five)
May 25 at Texas: Phil Humber (five)
May 26 at Toronto: Gavin Floyd (five)
May 27 at Toronto: Mark Buehrle (five)
May 28 at Toronto: Edwin Jackson (five)
May 29 at Toronto: John Danks (five)
May 30 at Boston: Jake Peavy (five)
May 31 at Boston: Phil Humber (five)
June 1 at Boston: Gavin Floyd (five)
With the extra space between starts, the White Sox brain trust plans on some mixing and matching, so it’s doubtful that five days of rest will be the norm for this run of starts between Oakland and Boston — chances are someone will be working on regular rest, while others could see six-day gaps between starts.
Looking at some key splits for each pitcher, the only one of the six who fares better on regular rest overall is Jackson, and to be fair, in the areas categories of OPS and WHIP, his four days’ and six days’ rest numbers are basically identical. Peavy historically functions best on five days’ rest, although his five and six day’s rest splits are dangerously similar.
However, based on how much better Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd have been with six days’ rest, a straight six-man rotation doesn’t play to the rotation’s historical strengths (only six spots are ideal per splits, 10 are less than ideal). Continuing to run Jackson out on his preferred four days’ rest and Peavy, when possible, on five days, results in a 20-day stretch with 11 spots being ideal and just five less so, and looks like this:
May 13 at Oakland: Phil Humber (six days’ rest)
May 14 at Oakland: Edwin Jackson (four)
May 15 at Oakland: Gavin Floyd (seven)
May 16 vs. Texas: Mark Buehrle (seven)
May 17 vs. Texas: Jake Peavy (five)
May 18 vs. Cleveland: John Danks (seven)
May 19 vs. Cleveland: Edwin Jackson (four)
May 20 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Phil Humber (six)
May 21 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Gavin Floyd (five)
May 22 vs. L.A. Dodgers: Mark Buehrle (five)
May 23 at Texas: Jake Peavy (five)
May 24 at Texas: Edwin Jackson (four)
May 25 at Texas: John Danks (six)
May 26 at Toronto: Phil Humber (five)
May 27 at Toronto: Gavin Floyd (five)
May 28 at Toronto: Mark Buehrle (five)
May 29 at Toronto: Edwin Jackson (four)
May 30 at Boston: Jake Peavy (six)
May 31 at Boston: John Danks (five)
June 1 at Boston: Phil Humber (five)